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Posted on: October 28, 2012 10:07 am
 

week 8

for anyone wondering..had to take week 8 off from the blog...just simply didn't have the time this week
Category: Fantasy Football
Posted on: October 25, 2012 7:58 pm
 

Treff's week 8 Predictions, Starts Sits

Yet agian, I'm here at the last minute trying to get this in before the Thursday game.  So recap later, off we go!!

Thursday PM
Vikings vs Buccaneers- To put it simply, the only thing holding back Peterson and Harvin is  the coach being jsut a tad on the conservative side with Ponder.  To some extent, the kid gloves are off as they pertain to Peterson this week.  Not sure what Frazier saw last week, that I didn't see five weeks ago that convinced him that Peterson is %100 back, but regardless, it sounds as though the riegns are off, and Peterson will be allowed to run free.  I hihgly doubt this will have much impact on Harvin, as the rushing attempts9 for the team as a whole, won't be going up, so Harvin should see the exact same amount of looks he's accustomed too.  And last week, the coach even made good on his promise to get Harvin more involved in the redzone, as we saw a TD pass that would normally have gone to Rudolph, end up in Harvin's hands.  Both are must starts, every week.

Josh Freeman has finally found whatever it was that he lost all of last season, and he looks ot be the QB that most of thought he would be in 2010.  Whether it was getting chemistry down with VJAX, or something else, i don't know.  But what I do know is that Freeman returning to relevance only means good things for us fantasy owners.  It returns VJAX to must start status, rescues Miek Williams for waiver pergatory, and tkaes some pressur eof off Doug Martin/L. Blount.  The problem this weke is though, they're facing the Vikings, not some bottom feeeder defense like the Saints.  given the bye weeks of Foster, Ray Rice, Spiller/Jackson, and BJGE, Doug Martin is probably still a must start, but if he gets you 7, be thrilled.  VJAX is also a must start, but again, hinder expectations and hope for a long TD pass, it's doubtful he'll be able to pile up stats in this one.  I owuld expect Mike Williams ot end up wit the better day, catch and yardage wise.

A's-Peterson, Harvin.
B's-VJAX, D. Martin, Mike Williams.  VIkes D
sits-Freman, Blount, TB D.   K. Rudolph, jenkins, Gerhert, Ponder
My pick- Vikings 31, Buccaneers 17 
Category: Fantasy Football
Posted on: October 23, 2012 9:58 pm
 

Treff's week 8 waiver add's

So here we are in week 8..teams on a bye are Buffalo, Cincinnati, Baltimore and Houston.
major players on with a bye week include:

Qb's-Flacco, Dalton, Fitzpatrick, Schuuab
Rb's-Jckson, Spiller, Ray Rice, BJGE, and Foster
WR's-Stevie johnson, AJ Green, Torrey Smith, Anquan Boldin, and Andre Johnson
TE's-Chandler, Greshem, Pitta, Daniels

Other than the QB and TE spot, where the only true possible every week starter is Owen Daniels, maybe Dalton, there are yet agian a lot of massive names on a bye this week, so expect some competition for those picks

QB's-
Sam Bradford- Facing NEwengland this week, he should be able to fill in for your QB this week quite nicely.  And even without Amendola, he's been able to retian a decent amount of value.  Chris Givens and Gibson are doing enough to make him relevant as a solid QB2

really no other QB's under %50 ownership that are attractive, either for this wek, or the long term. 

RB's-
Rashad Jennings-obivously everyone's #1 waiver grab this week. MJD's injury could be for 2-4 weeks, could be the rest of the season, either way Jennings is the starter for the time being.  Nuff said about the obivous.

Jonathon Dwyer-more of a hsort term option, Mendenhall will be back soon, if not this week, next.  Redman will also be around, Batch, and now Chris Rainey thrown into the mix it makes for a dicey situation.  But until mendy is back, expect a minimum of 15 touches for Dwyer..not to shabby for those looking for a one week fill in for Foster or Rice.

Shane Vereen-again, not a great option long term, as Ridley, Woodhead, and Bolden are still around, but he gets touches in the Patriots offense, he has to be a consideration, especially for Ridley owners who have an extra spot.

Phillip Tanner-just in case Murray's foot injury is slightly worse than they are letting on, it owuld be smar tto grab this guy, especially if someone higher up in the waiver order grabbed Felix last week.  Fragile Felix exited the game for about a quarter with a knee injury last week, it's only a matter of time before he's out for an extended period of time.

Larod Stephens Howling-I'm not about to buy the the "hyphen" gets another 20+ carry day, and if he does, cahnces are he'll be the next RB with a season ending injury.  But, if the coaching staff lost fiath in Powell after the early fumble, they're obivously ready to yank teh plug onhim agian next weeek


I would NOT consider Jamie Harper, or Montario Hardesty, I don't think Richardson's ribs are THAT banged up, and even if they are, Hardesty isn't getting the job done regardless.  And  Harper is nothign more than a gola line back on a team that rarely gets goalline work.  You can't really extrapolate much form them having the success they did vs the Bills pathetic run defense.

WR's-
Jeremy Kerley-so after three weeks of flip flopping on who ithought the Jet's #1 WR would be, it's clearly evident that I was right the second time.   Kerley is easily the most targetted reciever in NY, not that that is such a great thing, but itoucld save your week with some big name WR's on byes.

Chris Givens-sitll not gettign the targets he deserves, yet making the most of them when they come.  Hard to aruge with 5-8 pts a week, even when they are the result of one long bomb.  Those usually aren't reliable, but Givens has turend in at least one in every game save one, so it's almost a "Given".  And facing the patriots, not only will the Rams be forced to throw, but the Pat's have a quesionable pass defense to begin with, excellent play this week, possibly even long term every week WR#3 value.

Cecil Shorts-long shot here, Gabbert sucks, pure and simple, and I'm not sure how this left shoulder injury plays out going forward, and Chad Henne isn't any better, but someone has ot catch passes in JAX, and thus far the best one is Shorts. 

TE's-
thankfully not many good TE's on byes' this week, as there aren't many TE's under %50 ownership worth a damn

Dustin Keller-this is easily the best of the scrap heap.  He got plenty of catches Sunday afternoon, and othe rthan Kerely, is probably the only other option truly worth even a bye week fill in start.

DEF-
I don't endorse any of these teams as long term options, but givne the mathcups, they may be suitable fill ins for Blatimore or Houston.

Oakland Riaders-playing the Brady QUinn led Cheifs
Detriot Lions-playing Seattle, if the front line can contian Lynch, which is possible, they could be a good play.




  
Category: Fantasy Football
Posted on: October 20, 2012 2:09 am
 

Treff's Week 7 Predictions, Starts/sits

Treff’s week & starts/sits, predictions

Recap of week 6

Start of the week, Andy Dalton-Nailed it!  Okay so I only predicted 300 and 3 scores, he gave us almost 400 and three scores.  Granted I never mentioned anything about the turnovers, but when your QB tosses like that, you’ll overlook ‘em too.

Sit of the week, Matt Schuab-For future reference, if Jamey Eisenberg tells you to start a guy that “should surprise”, sit that guy.   And it wasn’t just CBS, I read on multiple sources that Schuab was a big sleeper play since he would have to be throwing so much to keep up with Green Bay.  And what did Schuab give us?  232 yards and 2 picks, even worse than I predicted he might be able to get.  No idea why some “experts” keep pointing at this guy as a great #2 QB..I wouldn’t even roster the guy in a 12 teamer, even if I had an 8 man bench.  Chalk up another tally in my win column.

Pick ‘em record-6-8.  I took a couple of big hits on this one with the Texans, Cardinals, and Vikes letting me down big time.  But, here’s the silver lining if you’re looking for one.  I predicted the Phins Rams game as the Phins 17, Rams 12.  Actual score Phin’s 17, Rams 14, not too shabby.   I also predicted a one point game for the Seahawks and Patriots with the Hawks winning 21-20, actual score? Seahawks 24, Patriots 23.  I prefer to dwell on those two games rather than the debacles, but don’t blame you if you choose the opposite.

Year thus far-

Start of the week- 3-3

Sit of the week-3-4

Pick ‘em- 51-39.

On to week 7!!

Start of the week-Mathew Stafford.  I know he’s facing the Bears, and the Bears have made mincemeat out of teams the past few weeks, but, much like my RGIII sit of the week, I just have a strong feeling Stafford scores 3 times and goes for 325 or more in this one as he leads the lions to the upset victory.

Sit of the week-Doug Martin.  I realize this isn’t all that crazy as a sit of the week pick, but hear me out.  He’s facing the second worst rush defense in the entire NFL, he SHOULD be a must start right?  Not in my mind, I think Legarrette Blount continues to eat away at Doug Martin’s touches, so much so that Martin won’t get 7 points this week, while Blount scores at least 10.

 

Thursday Night
49ers @ Seahawks
-Last week we saw a return to the form we all know from Alex Smith.  Not sure what type of smoke and mirrors Harbuagh has been using on this guy for the past 20 or so games, but it sure was working.  But the Giants sure snuffed it out, no reason to believe the Seahawks can't do the same.  At some point Randy moss needs to stop being a "decoy" and actually be used in the game plan.  Defenses won't continue rolling coverage to a guy that gets 1 catch on 3 targets a game, no matter what his name is.  They need to start taking advantage of that.  And if they can, that should open something up for Vernon Davis who has largely been forgotten 2 of the past 3 games.  And as usual, this team will lean heavily on Frank Gore with a decent sprinkling of Kendall Hunter.  thankfully, the Seattle team won't be able to mount much offense, and they should be able to keep up the running game all night long.

The Seahawks defense is more than for real kiddos, they're damned near scary!  Very strong pass rush, great shut down corners, and very solid line backing corps.  If only they could find some sort of consistency in that passing game.   And I'm not even going to put it all on the rookie Wilson.  The blame there falls on Pete Carrol.  In the last couple of games, there have been signs that he is willing to take the training wheels off, but nothing that is really concrete.  If given the chance, I believe Russell Wilson could be good enough to create a fantasy regular out of Doug Baldwin, and maybe even Sydney Rice.  I kinda doubt the latter, as only Brett Favre has ever made that dream come true, but it could happen.  Regardless, it won't be this game.

If you’re a purest that misses the days of defensive battles, the days before all the ticky tacky pass interference calls made the league into a pass happy circus; this is the game for you.  A defensive struggle to the end, where both teams offenses revolve around hard nosed rushing attacks.  Enjoy

A's-Gore 49'ers D.  Marshawn Lynch
B's- Vernon Davis.  Seattle D
sits-Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss.  Russel Wilson, Sydney Rice, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate.
my pick- 49'ers 17, 'Hawks 10 

Wasn’t all that far off on this one, but how can San Francisco play an entire game without getting Vernon Davis one single catch?  That even sadder thing is that they didn’t involve him whatsoever and still won, leaving less motivation to make him a focal point next week as well.  It was nice to see Randy Moss involved early though, even if it was only because Manningham wasn’t active.  It still puts it on film so coordinators have to account for him.

Sunday AM

Cowboys @ Panthers-Apparently, the Cowboys used the bye week to re-implement their running game, and even after Murray was injured, they stuck with it.  They gave over 20 carries to the combination of Felix Jones and Phillip Tanner.  Most of those going to Jones of course, but it’s worth mentioning that Tanner was involved.  So there’s no reason to believe that the rushing game won’t continue in Murray’s absence.  Especially considering that the Panthers currently rank twenty-third against the rush.  But we can’t forget that the current versions of the Cowboys were built to be a passing team first.  So Romo, Miles Austin and Witten should still be good plays, Dez Bryant as well, if he plays as the Panthers aren’t much better against the pass, sitting at nineteenth.

We all know the Panthers offense lives and dies at Cam Newton’s hand, and lately that hand has been that of death.  I still cannot fathom why this team won’t run the ball, and run it hard when they have DWILL and JSTEW sitting there, ESPECIALLY with Cam struggling the way he has.  Maybe we just think he’s struggling because of what he did last year and our expectation are too high?  Well, your expectations I should say, I’ve always thought he’d fall from grace, it just took him about 12 months longer than I expected.  Unless some serious changes were implemented during the Panthers bye week, I wouldn’t expect his fortunes to change this week.  The Cowboys currently sit at the number one slot in passing defense, and thirteenth against the rush.  Not a very good combination.

A’s-Romo, Miles Austin

B’s-Dez Bryant**, Jason Witten, Felix Jones, Dallas D.  Cam Newton, Greg Olsen

Sits-Phillip Tanner.  Steve Smith, DWILL, JSTEW, CAR D.

My pick- Cowboys 31, Panthers 14

Jaguars @ Raiders-two 1-4 teams enter the Black hole, one team leaves 2-4, but they both still suck.  First off, I still can’t understand what some people are seeing in Darren McFadden.  I watched nearly every offensive play form the game last week, and he was truly bad.  He was constantly running into his blockers, not seeing the cutback lanes, and in general just being sloppy.  Oh and some of the more favorable reviews of McFadden’s day mention a couple of ten and twenty yard runs that were called back as plusses for him, well guess what, they were called back by holding penalties, holding that allowed him to break the line of scrimmage, so I’m not sure why the apologists think they should mention them.  So why do I think he did so poorly when he had a very decent fantasy day?  Well, you don’t even need to see the game, or even a single play to know why, just check the box score.  27 for 70, that’s all you need to know.  For those not wishing to do that math, that’s a paltry 2.59 yards a carry.  And his long was 14.  That’s a pathetic yardage total for 27 carries.  The will be A LOT of games where they can’t give him 20+ carries, and 2.6 a clip isn’t going to get it done in fantasy world.  McFadden is still a disappointment, and still can’t grasp the zone blocking scheme.  BUT, he is facing the thirtieth ranked rush defense, so there is some hope, this week.  I’d also look for Denarious Moore to stay warm and have a decent day.

What’s left to say about Jacksonville that I haven’t already said?  The only thing to consider on this team from a fantasy perspective is MJD, period.  Gabbert is just plain bad, and his WR’s are mostly junk.  Perhaps if Blakmon had a QB, he might be roster worthy, but I doubt it.  Even playing the Raiders the only Jag I would consider starting is MJD.

A’s-Darren McFadden.  MJD

B’s-Carson Palmer, Denarious Moore, Raiders D

Sits- DHB, Streeter.  Gabbart, Blakmon, Mercedes Lewis

My pick- Raiders 24, Jag’s 10

Titans @ Bills-here we have two teams that are much better at running the ball than they are at throwing it.  And we also have two teams that can’t stop the run.  So, get your RB’s in, and any deep threat WR’s that you might have form either team and play them as well. As these teams run, run, run, eventually there will be a couple big plays from the passing games after they suck the safeties inside the box.  Even the time share between Spiller and Jackson should leave them both as great RB 2’s this week.  And yes, even Chris Johnson is a must start.

A’s-Chris Johnson.

B’s-Kenny Britt.  Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller, Stevie Johnson, Chandler.

Sits-Hasselblah, Titans D.  Fitzpatrick, Bills D

My pick-Bills 27, Titans 24

Ravens @ Texans-  The loss of Brian Cushing was even bigger than I thought it could’ve been.  Surely some of it has to do with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers having something to prove, but that was a complete dismantling of what I had considered the best overall defense in the league before the game.  The Texan’s D is now a matchup play, not a must start.  And I’m not so sure I’d start them this week.  The Ravens have some serious weapons, and without their field general, the Texans could be in serious trouble.  However, on the plus side for you Texans’ fans, the Ravens aren’t exactly setting the world on fire defensively either.  And they too have lost their field general, and their second in command, and Ed Reed is slowed as well.  I’m expecting a very good day for Arian Foster and Owen Daniels, even the slumping Andre Johnson could see a score in this one.

The Ravens have always revolved around Ray Rice, and they’ll have to lean on him in this one as well.  I don’t think Flacco can hang with JJ Watt for very long if they don’t first establish a very strong ground game.  If they can do that, I would expect the ravens to take advantage of the Texan’s secondary much the same way Aaron Rodgers did last week.  Now, I’m not saying 6 touchdowns for Flacco, but three wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility, but two much more likely.  But again, this depends on Ray Rice first.

A’s- Foster, Owen Daniels.  Ray Rice

B’s-Andre Johnson.  Torrey Smith, Joe Flacco, A. Boldin.

Sits-Texans D.  Pitta, Balt D.

My pick- Texans 28, Ravens 24

Browns @ Colts-The return of Joe Haden didn’t quite go as planned as Andy Dalton shredded the Browns pass defense for nearly 400 yards.  Surely Andrew luck, Reggie Wayne and Donnie Avery are salivating.  Unless you have absolutely no other alternatives, dump Vick Ballard.  I can’t recall the last time I saw a guy handed a lead back job, and then suck at it so badly.  If anyone was dumb enough to drop Donald Brown, slap them a few times, and then go pick him up.  He’s not the greatest RB by any means, but he’ll get you 5-10, which is pretty good if you have bye week problems after week 8.

Brandon Weedon continues to grow at a fairly rapid pace.  Now if only he and josh Gordon could connect more than three times a game, then we’d be on to something. But until then, both are desperation plays, as they just don’t get it done consistently enough.  Trent Richardson looks ot play in this one, but rib injuries are always a problem, especially with RB’s, look for a decent sized dose of Montario Hardesty, even if Richardson plays.  Seeing as how the Colt’s are  twenty-ninth against the run, that could be enough to make both backs worth a start.

A’s-Luck, Wayne.  Richardson**

B’s-Donnie Avery.  Josh Gordon, Hardesty.

Sits-Fleener, Colts D.  Weedon, Little, Browns D

My pick-Colts 35, Browns 20

Cardinals @ Vikings-  The Cardinals defense looked to be great at the start of the season, but they’ve been exposed the past few weeks, and a team like the Vikings with one of the game’s greatest RB’s, and a WR that is currently playing better than almost anyone in the league, that should continue, even if they do throttle back ponder a little bit.  After the first few games, the coaches gave Ponder a little slack on his leash, but numerous turnovers could lead to a slight scaling back of the offense to bring him back under control.  The targets for Harvin will still be there, but anyone taking a gamble on Jenkins should think again.  Rudolph remains an elite red zone threat, just too bad he doesn’t get many catches anywhere else on the field.

The Cardinals are forced to go back to Skelton.  Oh joy.  Been listening to ESPN radio a lot this week, watching NFL network from time to time, and there seems to be a 50/50 split between those that think Skelton will help the team, and those that think it’ll be disastrous.   I fall on the disastrous side.  He was terrible in week one, he was terrible in relief of Kolb last week, why he would magically be better this week is beyond me.  Not to mention, Larry Fitzgerald will be blanketed by Antoine Winfield, plus a safety all day.  Andre Roberts might sneak a score in here, but that’s about all I would expect.  As for the ground game, there won’t be enough of that to warrant a fantasy start either.  Powell remains the only viable option, but I’d be shocked to see him reach 75 yards.

A’s- Peterson, Harvin, Vikes D.

B’s-Rudolph.  Andre Roberts

Sits-Ponder, Gerhert, Jenkins, Simpson.   Fitzgerald, Powell, Stephens-Howling.

Redskins @ Giants-RGIII is once again a big stud.  Why though?  Is it those amazing 182 yards pasing, or that awesome 1-1 TD/INT ratio?  Probably not.  It’s his rushing numbers.  And that’s not what I want form my fantasy QB.  Sure they are great as long as they last, but as two weeks ago prove, that isn’t very long in this game.  This guy is not going to be ripping of 70 yard runs and scoring two rushing touchdowns and stay healthy, it just won’t happen.  Trade him before he gets hurt again.  BUT, like I’ve been saying since week 3, you’ve got to start him until that happens.  I like the Giants pass rush, but not against this kid, and I don’t like their secondary, so RGIII is a great start this week.  I’m not as high on Alfred Morris though.  I’d still play him, but I wouldn’t feel that great about it.  Yet another missed week for Garcon, this guy is entering drop territory with teams having bye week issues and still no solid timetable for his return.

The Redskins have an excellent rush defense, top ten even, and a terrible pass defense, dead last in the league.  So logic says Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, and Nicks should all be started.  Logic is usually right, and in this case I totally agree with it, start any member of the Giants normal receiving corps, including Martelous Bennett.  I would stay away from the Giants RB’s though.  Bradshaw has popped up on the injury report as questionable, Andre Brown is just returning from his injury, and the coaching staff still isn’t quite ready to turn anything over to David Wilson, and that’ snot even touching on that top ten defense yet.  If Bradshaw is a go, he’s a RB2/flex.

A’s-Eli, Cruz, Nicks.  RGIII

B’s-Bennett, Bradshaw**, Giants D.   Alfred Morris, Fred Davis, Hankerson

Sits-David Wilson, Andre Brown, Hixon.  Wash D, Garcon.

My pick- Giants 38, Redskins 20

Packers @ Rams-Fresh of his 50 point day, Rodgers faces a top five Rams defense.  Well, Houston was top five before Rodgers got ahold of them; I doubt the Rams will fare much better.  James jones, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, start them all.  I’m still sticking to my belief that eventually James Starks ends up being the lead back in Green Bay, I’m just not buying into Alex Green.  Green looked good enough, but Starks brings something extra to the table, someday he’ll get the chance to show it again.

Despite having only a middle of the road ranking in both pass and rush defense, the Packers really stuck it to the Texan’s, both in the air and on the ground.  It’ll be a tough day for Sam Bradford and the Rams, especially without their slot machine, Danny Amendola.  I would expect equally heavy doses of SJAX and Darryl Richardson for as long as possible, and once the game gets out of hand, a lot of incompletions and a few INT’s for Bradford.  If I had to start one Rams WR this week, it’d be Chris Givens, based solely on a hunch.

A’s-Rodgers, James Jones, Jordy Nelson.  

B’s-Randall Cobb, Alex Green, GB D.  SJAX, D. Richardson, Chris Givens

Sits-Starks, Finley.   Rams D, Bradford, B. Gibson.

My pick-Packers 38, Rams 20

Saints @ Buccaneers-Saints have finally started to play football, too bad the season started about four weeks before they did.  But, that doesn’t matter so much to use fake football geeks, we only care about how you’re scoring us points this week.  Drew Brees has Lance Moore back this week, Colston is hotter than two dollar pistol, but Jimmy Graham is hobbled.  I don’t think that’ll affect the Saints nearly as much as it will us fantasy owners, as Brees has never been really picky as to who he throws to.  Add to it that they are facing the second worse pass defense in the league, and all Brees owners should be staring at a “W” this week.  Still can’t look to any of the RB’s for consistent points, Sproles remains the only viable starting option, regardless of opponent.

Josh Freeman does indeed still have a pulse.  Most of us thought he was dead, but he lives on.  I’m not saying go out and start the guy, but last week did rekindle a little of what we thought he was going to be heading into last season.  Not only did he connect with Mike Williams yet again, but he got VJAX into the end zone twice as well.   This week they find themselves facing a bottom feeding pass defense, nice.   If they can continue this action, Tampa Bay might become a late season fantasy “boom town.”  Doug Martin continues to disappoint (as predicted)if not for the two catches for a crazy 50+ yards his day would've been another stinker.  Legarrette Blount is looking like the much more explosive back, and is definitely the red zone guy.  Hopefully you took my early season advice and traded Martin before his hype wore off, as he may not even have the “lead” back job for much longer. Savy fantasy owners see thorugh RB's that get a fluke long catch and run or two.  But, both backs face the second worse rush defense in the league, if Doug Martin had any real speed, I’d say start ‘em both, but he doesn’t, so I would imagine any scores would go to Blount and Martin won’t hit 75 yards

A’s-Brees, Colston, Moore.  VJAX

B’s-Sproles, Jimmy Graham**.  Mike Williams, L. Blount, Josh Freeman

Sits-Saints D, Ingram, P. Thomas.  Doug Martin, Buc’s D.

My pick-Saints 35, Buc’s 31

Sunday PM

Jets @ Patriots-First off, why the heck is there only ONE afternoon game??  Who made this schedule?  What’s the point of the Sunday Ticket if there’s only one game on for one third of the day??  What a letdown this is gonna be.  Anyway,

With no Darrel Revis, and Cromartie almost guaranteed to be on Lloyd on the outside, I would look for Welker, Hernandez and Gronk to have great games in this on, even with the Jets top ten pass defense.  I would look for Rex Ryan to be stuck on proving that Ridley, and Bolden thrashing his team a few weeks ago was a fluke, and I think that’ll be his main goal, stopping the run.  And by the time he realize that that’s a bad plan, it’ll be too late.

Amazingly, I’ve heard no Shonne Green hype after his massive day last week.  What gives?  Ahh, if only he was actually that good.  Really all that performance did for me was really make me wonder why his first three season were so crappy.  It surely doesn’t install a lot of confidence in him going forward.  But, at least he showed that it is possible for him to be productive, and he probably held of Bilial Powell for another few weeks.  Either way, I can’t see anything resembling a repeat this week as the Jet’s run game will be taken away, if not by Willfork, it will be by Brady, or both.  As for the Jet’s aerial assault, if you can call it that, I don’t see much there, but I do think Stephen Hill is worth a start.  The Jets will be forced to pass in this game, no doubt about it, and out of this rag tag group of young WR’s, Hill stands the best chance at beating the Patriots secondary.

A’s-Brady, Welker, Hernandez, Gronk. 

B’s-Ridley,Woodhead, Pat’s D.  Stephen Hill.

Sits-Bodlen, Lloyd.  Jet’s D, Sanchez, Kerley, Keller.

My pick-Pat’s 31, Jets 14

Sunday Night

Steelers @ Bengals-Andy Dalton continues to impress.  I guess it’s not that hard when you have AJ Green on the field.  With no “the hair” patrolling centerfield, I would look for Dalton to Green, early and often.  BJGE is a mere flex play, or desperation #2 at best this week.  Not a whole lot to explain here, the Bengals are an easy team to figure, Dalton to Green.

Steelers on the other hand are not so easy to figure out, especially this week. No Mendy, no Redman, Dwyer wasn’t as impressive as I had hoped earlier in the year, and Brandon Batch looked okay, but wasn’t all that great in his relief role last week.  Too bad too, as the Bengals rank in the bottom half in rush defense, but smack in the middle for the pass.  Speaking of the passing game, Big Ben and his two headed monster at WR seem to be clicking fairly well.  I would like to see a bit more of Antonio Brown being involved, but whatever works.  Heath Miller is the new Victoria Secret model, just a big tease.  The only difference is, he scores once you put him down, you put the catalog down, you still don’t score.

A’s-Dalton, Green.   Big Ben, Wallace

B’s-Greshem, BJGE, Hawkins, Bengals D.  A. Brown

Sits-Steelers D, Heath Miller, Brandon Batch, J. Dwyer.

My pick-Bengals  24, Steelers 17

Monday Night

Lions @ Bears-After last week’s overtime win, could the Cardiac Cats be back??  When Stafford is the QB, and Calvin Johnson is on the field, almost anything is possible.  My gut tells me that last week was the start of the Lions playing the way most thought they would headed into this season.  Granted, the Bears have an excellent defense, one that is surely capable of shutting down the entire Lions offense, but something tells me that won’t happen.  Stafford is my start of the week, and I’m predicting Calvins best day thus far as well.  There’s no number to point to, as the numbers all point towards the Bears, but I think the Lions have awoken, and they’ve got some things to prove.

Cutler and Marshall are a lethal combo, so are Forte and Bush.   But even after a week off, I don’t see them beating this Lions team.  Cutler starts off having a bad day, and in typical Cutler fashion, it will snowball throughout the game.  Forte will save his fantasy day with receiving yards, Bush vultures a score, and Cutler and Marshall hook up for one, that’s all they’ll get.

A’s-Stafford, Calvin Johnson.

B’s-Burleson, Pettigrew, Lions D.  Forte,Bush, Marshall

Sits-Leshoure, Bell.  Cutler, Bears D, Hester

My pick-Lions 24, Bears 17

Category: Fantasy Football
Posted on: October 18, 2012 8:31 pm
 

Treff's Week 7 Predictions

Okay, so i got home extremely late, and as I'm typing this the game is about two minutes form kickoff..so the recap will hav eot wiat until Friday.


Thursday Night
49ers @ Seahawks-Last week we saw a return to the form we all know from Alex Smith.  Not sure what type of smoke and mirrors harbuagh has been using on this guy for hte past 20 or so games, but it sure was working.  But the Giants sure snuffed it out, no reason to beleive the Seahawks can't do the same.  At some point Randy moss needs to stop beign a "decoy" and actually be used in the gameplan.  Defenses won't continue rolling coverage to a guy that gets 1 catch on 3 targets a game, no matter what his name is.  They need to start taking advantage of that.  And if they can, that should open something up for Vernon Davis who has largely been forgotten 2 of the past 3 games.  And as usual, this team will lean heavily on Frank Gore with a decent sprinkling of Kendall Hunter.  thankfully, the Seattle team won't be able to mount much offense, and they should be able ot keep up the running game all night long.

The Seahawks defense is more than for real kiddos, they're damned near scarey!  Very strong pass rush, great shut down corners, and very solid linebacking corps.  If only They could find some sor tof consistancy in that passing game.   And I'm not even going to put it all on the rookie Wilson.  The blame there falls on Pete Carrol.  In the last couple of games, there have been signs that he is willing ot take the trianing wheels off, but nothing that is really concrete.  If given the chance, I beleive Russel Wilson could be good enough to create a fantasy regular out of Doug Bladwin, and maybe even Sydney Rice.  I kinda doub tthe latter, as only Brett Favre has ever made that dream come true, but it oculd happen.  regardless, it won't be this game.

If your a purest that misses the days of defensive battles, the days before all the ticky tacky pass interference calls made the leauge into a pass happy circus, this is the game for you.  A defensive sturggle to the end, where both teams offenses revolve around hard nosed rushing attacks.  Enjoy

A's-Gore 49'ers D.  Marshawn Lynch
B's- Vernon Davis.  Seattle D
sits-Alex Smith, Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss.  Russel Wilson, Sydney Rice, Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate.
my pick- 49'ers 17, 'Hawks 10 
Category: Fantasy Football
Posted on: October 16, 2012 10:10 pm
 

Treff's week 7 waiver pickups

So a little disclosure first off.   I've missed big time with my last two sleeper WR picks in Chaz Schillens and Steve Smith.  Figuring the coaching staffes would want a verteran prescence and solid route running skills to helpthe Qb's out, I thought those guys would be easy target magents.  Oops.  I'll try and get a little better here.

Remember, bottom line, %50 ownership on these guys, or lower.  Me telling oyu to pick up Randall Cobb (@%75) does neither of us any good.

Major players on a bye this week (helpful if your planning on who your opponenets might be looking at)
QB's: Peyton Manning, Philips Rivers, Mike Vick, Matt Ryan
RB's: Reggie Bush, Willis MCGahee, Ryan Mathews, Lesean McCoy, Michael Turner, Jammaal Charles
WR's: Eric Decker, D. Thomas, Malcolm Floyd, Jeremy Maclin, Desean Jackson, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Brian Hartline, Dewayne Bowe.
TE's: Tamme, Gates, Celek, Gonzalez

That adds up for a busy waiver wire this week as there a lot of holes to be filled on many teams.

 QB's-  Josh Freeman, right at %50 ownership, has finally shown some signs of life, granted it was only one game, but, he got both his big play WR's the ball, and hopefully it's a sign of things to come.  right now, I'd rather have Josh Freeman on my team than Matt Schuab, Fitzpatrick, or even Phillip Rivers.  he's also quite possibly the best option fo ra one week band aid if your a 

Brandon Weedon-This kid has gone form getting stuck underneath a huge American flag, to near relevance in a matter of six weeks.  He may end up being legit by years end.   Not a great play this weekend though.  More of a long term stash if oyu can afford it.

Sam Bradford-I'm still not expecting much, but he did show that he can still slign it a bit without Amendola around.  h'ell have to agians the Packers this week, whether he cna or not remains to be seen.

RB's-
Felix Jones-pretty much everyone is going to put this claim in #!, so be ready to put in a few back ups.  Honestly though, this is a one week solution pure and simple.  Contraryto what some people ar ethinking, the injury to Demarco Murray is NOT the same as the one suferred by Dareen McFadden last year, there was no lisfranc damage shown in Murrays tests.  If Murray misses more than week 7, I'd be shocked.  So don't drop anyone with long term value here.

David Wilson- this pick is more of that long term value and not so much for htose that are looking for a fill in this week.  It'll take a Bradshaw injury for Wilson to be worth even a flex start, but givein that Bradshaw has had a tone of carries recently, that's entirely possible.  Add ot it that he has finally regained some of that trust he lost in the first two weeks and he oculd be an excellent stash, or at minimum a perfect handcuff to a back with a recent injury history.

Darryl Richardson-I've been down on this guy all year.  Jackson's backups have shown moments of greatness in the past, only to be stuck back in mothballs the next week as a questionable Jackson just keeps playing.  That doesn't seem to be the case any longer.  Richardson has looked faster, quicker, and just as tough as Jackson lately, and the Ram's are letting him have plenty of meaningful touches.  Given a decent matchup, he has flex value, even if SJAX plays every game.

Mike Goodson-strictly as a handcuff to Darren McFadden, or if your not a McFadden owner, trade bait to the team that does have him.  But he's much better suited for the zone blocking scheme than McFadden is, so there will be games where you wished you started him instead of DMC.

Peyton Hillis-chances are most owners dumped him after his injury, so he's probably out there.  The only problem is, that Jammall Charles has ran away with the job, hands down.  Hillis is due back after his week seven bye, but anyhting more than goal line work would be a major surprise.

Montario Hardesty-yet another long shot here, but with an abondance of backs on bye's this week, and trent Richardson sure to be at least slowed by the rib injury, hardesty should get a hand ful of touches and might save you a few points if your desperate.

WR's-
Donnie Avery-the box scores may not show it yet (unless your box score shows targets), but Avery is getting enough looks to be fantasy relevant, but for whatever reason he and Luck haven't connected on enough of them just yet.  Eventually that will change, it has to, becuase Wayne can't keep this up forever.

Josh Gordon-clearly he's become the Browns #1 WR, but jsut as clearly, he's still not getting many targets.  But the guy takes half of them to the house it seems.  Proto-typical boom or bust pick.  just what the doctor orded for those gamblers looking to fill the void of a lot of big name WR's with an off week.


Stephen Hill-One week it's Jeremy Kerley, the next it's Stephen Hill.  But ot be fair, that first week Stephen Hill wasn't active.  So now, the Jet's #1 WR certainly seems to be Hill.  And rightfully so, he has the look to be a major player, all he needs is opportunity.  And now he has that as well.

Brandon Gibson-So checking the Rams catches from last week, the first full game without Amendola, and we really don't see a huge uptick for any one WR.  it would seem that Bradford prefers everyone to share the wealth. So, as fantasy owners, our best bet is to grab thier leading reciever and hope it stays that way.

Chris Givens-second verse, same as the first..onlyhtis time substitute leading reciever with best deep threat.

Doug Baldwin-this guy was a hot waiver pickup towards the middle-end of last year.  It's been a while and it took some time to get him back in the swing of things.  But with Pete Carrol starting to remove the training wheels from Russel Wilson, he's worht a look, even if it is a long shot.

TE's-
there really are no serious options that are owned in less than %50 of leagues..your best bets are Ben Watson, and Tom Crabtree.




 
Category: Fantasy Football
Posted on: October 13, 2012 3:32 am
 

Treff's week 6 Predictions, Starts/sits

Treff’s Week 6 Predictions starts/Sits

 

Record thus far:
Start of the week:  2-3
Sits of the week: 2-4 
Pick 'em:  45-31 (10-4 last week)  (%59,  getting better after back to back double digit wins, but work to be done!)

Only have time for the THursday night game tongiht.  Will hit the rest Friday evening.

Thursday Night
Steelers @ Titans-
So I was wrong on Mendenhall, didn't think he'd be a full go the first week back and he ended up scoring the only Steelers TD on the day.  But let's not get too carried away, they're obviously easing him back into the game, Redman had just as many carries.  So he's not a sure fire starter every week just yet.  But, the Titans are a definite start for Mendy owners.  Maybe that's part of why Chris Johnson is just so terrible lately.  All of his practice reps come against a truly pathetic rush defense, so he still thinks this game is easy.  Yes? No?  ehh, probably not, but there has to be some reason, and that's as good as any other I've heard.  And if that wasn't bad enough, the Titans pass defense is pretty shoddy as well.  There really should be no reason the Steelers don't win this game handily, regardless oh how they choose to attack it, by air or ground.

Titans just stink, I'm sorry if there are any Titans fans reading, but let's be honest, your best player has regressed so far that he honestly shouldn't even be on the field.  yes your o-line is awful and that has to be a huge factor in Johnson's dismal performance, but at some point great RB's like Johnson claims he is, find a way.  Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Marshall Fualk, and on and on, didn't always have the best line, but they always got the job done.  Johnson thinks he's in that class, but has done nothing to prove it since 2010.  And the rest of the team, outside of Kendall Wright has no business even being discussed as it applies to Fantasy football.

A's-Big Ben, Antonio Frown, Mendenhall, PITT D
B's-Wallace, Miller, maybe even Redman.  Kendall Wright
Sits- Chris Johnson, Hasselblah, any other Titan that you may be unfortunate enough to own.
My pick-  Steelers 31, Titans 10

 

 

Well, I blew that one right?  Who’d have thunk the Steeler would’ve needed to play their third RB most of the game??  About the only thing I got right was the maybe on Redman.  Hopefully that’s not a sign of things to come this week.

 

Start of the week-Andy Dalton, most everyone expects Dalton to do somewhat poorly in this game because of Joe Haden’s return.  I see things a bit differently.  Armon Binns and Andrew Hawkins have both stepped up at different times while AJ Green was being blanketed on the other side of the field, and I think Hawkins for sure steps up this week, as well as Greshem, possibly even Binns as well.  At least 270 and 2 scores from Dalton, but 300 and three wouldn’t shock me in the slightest.

Sit of the week-Matt Schuab, I’ve read quite a few run downs that mention Green Bay has a bad pass defense, but when I check on them, I see a team smack dab in the middle of pass defense in yards allowed, and that’s counting the 446 they gave up to Brees.  Sure they’ve allowed ten passing touchdowns, a third of those were from Brees as well.  Schuab is no Brees, he’s not even Andrew Luck (362 and 2 vs the Pack), and his offense sure as heck isn’t  designed to be anything like the Saints or the Colts. Less than  250, 1 score, 1 INT from Schuab this week.

SUNDAY AM

Cowboys @ Ravens-  Will the BYE week help Romo and the offense get on the same page?  That’s the burning question here, and if it wasn’t against the Ravens I would have little problem saying “yes”.  But the Ravens D is still really stout, and they force the issue, something that the Cowboys have problems dealing with, especially with that terrible O-line.  I do think the offense as a whole does better than their previous game, but it’ll still be slim pickings for most Cowboys fantasy owners this week.

Dallas has issues defending the deep ball, have ever since “Prime Time” left town.  I would look for a big day for Torrey Smith, possibly Boldin as well.  And Ray Rice should turn in his typical 10-15 points as well.  This is one of those weeks where if Flacco is your backup, you may want to seriously consider starting him.  I owuldn’t say he’s a must start by any means, but he’s a better play than many.

A’s-Ray Rice, Torrey Smith.  Miles Austin, Jason Witten

B’s- Balt. D., Boldin, Flacco.  Murray, Dez Bryant, Romo

Sits-Pitta.  DALL D.

My pick- Ravens 27, Cowboys 20

Raiders @ Falcons- So, if Oakland implemented some fairly serious changes to the running game, McFadden will be a decent play from here on out.  That’s a pretty big if.  Far too often coaches bang their heads against a brick wall with this insane notion that their “system” works, and they’ll prove it, regardless of whether the players plugged into that system have the skills or not.  Greg Knapp is easily one of those guys, so I’m not expecting any serious changes going forward, expect to continue to be disappointed by DMC.  Likewise for Carson Palmer and that passing game.  With DHB and Moore, you’ve got speed galore on the field, but you’ve got a pop gun trying to utilize it.  By the way, this is yet another example of a player not fitting the system and still not getting any offensive changes.  Simply put, there’s very little hope for offensive success in Oakland, this week, and this year.

Six weeks into the season and we have yet to see this supposed screen passing game in Atlanta.  I’ve seen a couple to Turner, a couple to Julio Jones, and one to Quizz, in five games.  The biggest benefactor was supposed to be Quizz in this “gradual transition” into a new lead back.  Well so much for that plan I guess.  Turner is proving he can still get it done, not like he used to, but he’s still being productive, especially the past few weeks.  I’m not ready to jump ship on Rodgers quite yet, but I certainly wouldn’t argue much with those that do.  Gonzalez continues to be purely ageless.  Currently the #1 fantasy TE, and no signs of slowing down.  This new approach to a more vertical passing attack has led to a lot of deep overage based defensive looks and Gonzalez has made them pay underneath, every week.  White and Julio are still every week plays, no matter who did what the previous week. What a nightmare for defensive coordinators who don’t have at least two excellent shut down corners.  Oh, Oakland doesn’t even have one.  Start all Falcons with confidence

A’s-Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez. ATL D

B’s-Michael Turner.  Darren MCFadden

Sits-Jacquizz Rodgers.  OAK D, Carson Palmer, DHB, Denarious Moore

My pick- Falcons 38, Raiders, 13

Giants @ 49’ers-  Could be a very strange game.  I could see a defensive struggle on both sides, and I could just as easily see a higher scoring game.  Hard to think the Niners won’t play solid defense, they are one of the best, if not the best, and I think they will.   The question to me is, will Alex Smith be able to find Vernon Davis and Crabtree?  The Giants don’t seem to have the athletes in coverage that could handle them, but that pass rush is killer.  My best guess is that we see a very heavy dose of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter in this one, with the occasional” keep them honest”  type of passes down the seems to Vernon or outside to Crabby.

Eli can pick apart almost any defense when given just a little bit of time,   And that’s what the line has been giving him this year, having allowed only five sacks thus far.  They won’t be able to run the ball much with Bradshaw’s slight frame, so the air game will have to get it done, look for more than the normal amount of targets for Bradshaw in an effort to get the ball in his hands away from the D-line.  A returning Nicks should help, assuming he makes the trip

A’s- Frank Gore, Vernon Davis.  Victor Cruz

B’s-Crabtree. 49’ers D.  Eli Manning, Nicks/Hixon, Bradhsaw

Sits- Moss, Hunter ,Manningham.  Giants D, M. Bennett.

My pick- Giants 17, Niners 14

Bengals @ Browns-  Andy Dalton had a little dose of reality last week.  He didn’t play all that terrible, but it’s evidence that just having AJ Green doesn’t always equal success.  Facing the returning Joe Haden won’t help much, but the fact that he’s about all the Browns defense has to offer will.  Look for the secondary WR’s and Greshem to get a few more looks in this one, and hinder your expectations for AJ Green.  The Law Firm has never wowed anyone, yet he continues to plod on for around 60-80 yards a game, nothing all that great, but better than a boom or bust pick who busts far too often would be, the loss of Bernard Scott can only help him as well.

I expect one good hookup from Weedon to Gordon this week, and a very good day from Trent Richardson as the Browns should be in the game up till near the end.  This could be Greg Little’s last gasp at proving himself before being permanently passed by Gordon in the picking order.

A’s- Trent Richardson.   Andy Dalton

B’s-Gordon.  Law Firm, AJ Green, Andrew Hawkins, Jermaine Greshem,  Bengals D

Sits-Greg Little, Weedon, Browns D

My pick-Bengals 24, Browns 20

Rams @ Dolphins-  The Phins defense surprised me a bit last week.  Everyone said they were improved but I hadn’t actually seen them up till that game.  I was impressed.  Their offense may still be a few beers short of a six pack on most weeks, but the defense has got game.  I don’t expect much at all form the Rams who will be without their best WR and still have a hobbled RB.  The only positive from a fantasy perspective for the Rams is getting a glimpse at who will be the guy to get Amendola’s missing catches. My money is still on Steve Smith who was inactive last game, so the catches made by any Rams receiver after Amendola went down are virtually irrelevant.  But it could just as easily be Brandon Gibson or even Givens.  Might be all of them, which means no one truly gets a real boost in value.

But as impressed as I am with the defense, I’m just as unimpressed with the offense.  Tannehill may someday be a good to great NFL QB, but he’s got a long ways to go, and needs someone other than Brian Harltine to step up and make plays.  That cat is out of the bag, and defenses will be keying on him until forced to do otherwise.  Here I suspect the Rams will sit back and double up on Hartline, and lean on Howie Long Jr. and Road Warrior Animal Jr.to stop anything up front. Reggie Bush should continue to be a solid play as the coverage will dictate check downs, if Tannehill takes what’s given to him.

A’s-Reggie Bush

B’s-Hartline, Dolphins D. 

Sits-Devone Bess.  SJAX, Bradford, Gibson, Givens, S. Smith, Darryl Richardson, Rams D

My pick- Dolphins 17, Rams 12

Colts @ Jets-Did the Jets show signs of life last week?  Or did Matt Schuab and the Texans simply overlook them?  I’m taking the later, as Shcuab looked completely indifferent as he was lackadaisically tossing the ball to whomever and to wherever it went.  This club is still an offensive black hole.  Don’t forget, of the two touchdowns scored, one was the result of great field position off an INT, and the other was a kick return.  Sanchez still bites, Jeremy Kerley is the only somewhat trustworthy option available, and Shonne Greene sucks even worse than Sanchez does.  Bilial Powell’s time has to be coming soon.

Andrew Luck has no hit 300+ and 2 scores in three of fours games this year.  It’s time to say he is legit, and you may want to begin considering starting him if the matchups are in his favor.  I have to imagine that luck will be smart enough o not throw at Cromartie too often, which might mean a less productive day for Wayne, but may help out Donnie Avery.  VIck Ballard was the hot name after the waiver deadline, once it was revealed that Donald Brown will be out at least the next two weeks.  Adding him doesn’t mean start him.  And I wouldn’t be so sure that he’s back on the scrap pile three weeks from now.

A’s- Andrew Luck, Avery.

B’s-Wayne, Colts D.  Kerley

Sits- Ballard, Fleener.  Sanchez, Greene, Powell. Jets D

My pick- Colts 24, Jets 13

 

Lions @ Eagles-  This should be the most fun of the AM games, one team can’t run the ball and throws it, the other team refuses to run the ball and throws it, even though they have one of the game’s best RB’s, go figure.  Just like I said last week, the key to the Eagles offense has to be with running the ball.  If Vick can’t get the safeties sucked up, if he can’t get the defensive line to hold back a little on the pass rush, this team is doomed offensively.  They don’t have a QB that can recognize blitzes, and they don’t have an offensive line that can pick them up.  They MUST run the ball.  IF they do everything else will fall into place.  Vick is deadly when given a decent pocket and itme ot find Maclin and DJAX

The Lions can’t run the ball, that much has been proven.  Sure they may have the occasional game where they appear ot be able to, but realistically, it’s not their style.  LeShoure may very well be a great downhill runner, but won’t get enough shots in this offense to ever be a consistent fantasy player, not unless he becomes a true threat in the passing game.  LeShoure owners, keep a watchful eye on the progress of Jahvid Best, and start looking for a trade partner if you even think he’ll get cleared.  He may not steal LeShoure’s job, but his presence will be enough to make you leery of ever starting him, so you may as well get some value for him while you can.  Calvin Johnson has been disappointing to say the least, but there’s no way a man that gifted stays down for long, stay the course and don’t sell low on him.

A’s-Calvin Johnson, Mathew Stafford.  Maclin, McCoy

B’s-Pettigrew.  DJAX, Vick, Celek

Sits-Lions D, T. Young, Burleson..  Eagles D,

My pick-Eagles 38, Lions 31

Chiefs @ Buccaneers-well here’s a quick one.  With Brady Quinn taking the helm, the Cheifs will be even more unbalanced towards the run than they usually are.  Wouldn’t even consider Bowe, Baldwin or anyone else that doesn’t get the ball handed to them.

Josh Freeman is beyond disappointing.  Two consecutive years he’s regressed.  Not even the addition of a “big time” WR has really helped.  It may have stabilized the free fall, but Freeman still isn’t producing the way we all thought he might two and half years ago after that big year between he and Mike Williams.  Further complicating matters, Doug Martin has truly shown that he was all hype.  I’m no big fan of Legarrette Blount, but I can’t for the life of my understand why Doug Martin is starting and Blount is coming off the bench.  Not impressed whatsoever with what I’ve seen from Doug Martin, if you can still find a taker, go for it, and then try and get Blount to take his place, before it happens in reality.  I’ll keep Doug Martin on the B list, just because of opportunity for touches, but any real production is questionable

A’s- Jamaal Charles, KC D

B’s- VJAX, D Martin, TB D. 

Sits-Mike Williams, Blount, Freeman.  Bowe, Baldwin, Quinn

My pick- KC 13, TB 7

SUNDAY PM

Bills @ Cardinals-The Cards have been slightly exposed, but they aren’t a total fraud.  That defense is still a legit D, Kolb is still looking more or less comfortable, and they still have Fitz.  Too bad they’re down to their third and fourth, maybe even fifth options at RB.  What sucks the most for us fantasy owners, is that there will be no one true RB on this team.  Stephen Howlings will get 5-8 touches, William Powell will get 5-10, and Alfonso Smith will snag a handful as well.  All this confusion, and a week where they have the best possible chance ot get something going on the ground facing the Bills.  Someone is going to have a good day here.  I’m putting my money on William Powell, but it’s a really small amount of money.

There is only one reason to justify this timeshare between CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson, and it ocmes down to injury possibilities.  I can only assume the Bills staff thinks splitting touches evenly decreases the chances of either of them getting hurt.  Personally I think that doesn’t do sqwat, as the chances of getting hurt aren’t necessarily cumulative form play to play, and it can happen at any given time.  So why not go with the best athlete on the team for the majority of the time??  Hopefully it’ll eventually happen, unitl then, neither Jackson of Spiller are recommended as anything more than flex-type players, and maybe not even that this week vs the Card’s D.

A’s-Fitzgerald, Cards D.

B’s-Wiliam Powell, Andre Roberts.  CJ Spiller, Steve Johnson, Chandler

Sit’s-Stephens-Howling, Alfonso Smith, Kolb.  Bills D, Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson.

My pick-Card’s 24, Bills 14

Patriots @ Seahawks-  Plenty of drama in this one, added to by the lack of answers from the Pat’s.  16 players listed as questionable on the Pat’s injury report this Friday, SIXTEEN!!  Including Welker, Hernandez, Edelman, Gronk and Bolden.  Unreal.  Add to it the probability that both Welker and Hernandez do play, will it go back to what we saw in weeks 1 & 2?  Or was that just Bill making his point to Welker and now it’s over with?  Or, was it over with, and then Welker re-opened the wound with his ridiculous comment after last weekend’s game?  Crazy.  All we can do is hope that hot hand stays hot, and keep playing Welker until proven otherwise.  All of this, and that doesn’t even mention the fact that they’re facing one of the league’s best defenses in the Seahawks.

Then we’ve got the Seahawks.  At least they’re a very simple team to figure out from a fantasy perspective.  Start Lynch and the D, let everyone else sit on the waiver wire, regardless of opponent

A’s-Brady, Welker.  M. lynch

B’s-Ridley, Pat’s D.  Seattle D

Sits-Boldin, Lloyd, Gronk, Hernandez.   Hasselblah, Rice, Tate

My pick-Seahawks 21, Patriots 20.

Vikings @ Redskins-Apparently RGIII has received his clearance from the concussion last Sunday.  The rook finally got his rude introduction to NFL football, and I think it’ll have a lasting impression, at least lasting a week or two.  He will be more timid with the ball, won’t be making nearly as many of his crazy runs, and it will lead to the Redskins offense moving very sluggishly, I see lots of three and outs, unless they lean heavily on Alfred Morris.

 

And if they do lean heavily on Alfred Morris, I feel the Vikings D is more than up to the challenge.  Besides, I think that between Peterson and Harvin, the Vikings may be able to eliminate Morris from the gameplan early in the third quarter.  I think both of the Vikings horses have great days, both find the endzone.  IF Jerome Simpson plays, it should be little more than a decoy role.

A’s- Peterson, Harvin.

B’s-K. Rudolph, Vikes D.  A. Morris, RGIII, Garcon

Sits-Jenkins, Simpson, Ponder.   Hankerson, Fred Davis, ‘Skins D.

My pick-Vikings 27, Redskins 13

 

SUNDAY NIGHT

Packers @ Texans-It appears as though Greg Jennings is missing this game as well.  Looking like it might be a lost season for the #1 WR.  There’s still time to save it, there are plenty of games left.  But a groin injury that is apparently as severe as his is, isn’t going to just go away, and without a significant amount of pure rest, it will always be a big risk for re-injury.  James Jones has filled in quite nicely this time around, look for that to be hindered at least a little bit this week, as he’s not good enough to beat the Texan’s secondary on a regular basis.  Speaking of underachieving WR’s, where has Jordy Nelson been all year?  Between jones and Cobb, he may as well not even be on the field.  I don’t think you can realistically sit the guy, the potential for huge games is still there, but he’s really starting to be a thorn in the side of many fantasy owners.  Hell, guess we can just throw a blanket over the entire offense and say the same thing, outside of James Jones.  The key story to watch here is the touché distribution between Alex Green and James Starks.  And toss in Kuhn and Saine just to be safe.  My opinion is that once Starks gets in there, he won’t come out often, but Kuhn will continue the goal line work, at least the little bit that doesn’t already go to Rodgers anyways.

The Texans really shocked me last Monday night.  Going against a defense that had just been gashed for about a mile of rushing yards, they came out throwing the ball around like they were the best show on turf incarnate.  Ridiculous, and it almost cost them the game.  If Schuab hadn’t thrown the interception, setting the Jets up for an easy score, the entire game would’ve played much differently and the Texans could’ve jogged it in form halftime on.  But they did realize the bonehead gameplan, scrapped it, and gave the game over to Foster from that point on, and ended up winning.    I highly doubt they will make that mistake again this week.  They’ll start with Foster, and end that way as the defense never allows GB to run away with the game.

A’s- Foster. 

B’s-Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels,  Texan’s D.  Rodgers, James Jones.

Sits- Ben Tate, Matt Schuab.  GB defense, A Green, J. Starks, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley

My pick-Texans 28, Packers 14.

 

MONDAY NIGHT

Broncos @ Chargers-Say what you will about Peyton Manning (and him being a Bronco, I have a lot to say about him), but he’s a very efficient, very productive fantasy QB, regardless of the injury or the age.  Currently sitting in the #3 spot in QB rankings for standard scoring, it just simply can’t be denied, by even the biggest Bronco hater (me).  And with that comes every week start status for at least D. Thomas, and usually Decker as well.   McGahee is still chugging out the yards, and those late game gaffes won’t cost him his job.  Ronnie Hillman may have taken over the clear #2 job, but still has issues in pass protection and John Fox isn’t about to entrust this rookie with both his and Peyton Mannings career.  The Chargers just got blitzed by Drew Brees with, IMHO, mush lesser weapons than Manning had at his disposal, I expect the Broncos to do the same thing the Saints did.

Norv Turner may finally be ready to hand the real reins of the running game over to Ryan Mathews.  He still hasn’t proven to me that he’s an NFL RB, but he has proven that he’s the best one they have available, by far.  If you haven’t dropped Jackie Battle, please excuse yourself now, go do it, and come back, I’ll wait.

The thing I liked the most about the Chargers last week, were the hookups between Meachem and Rivers.  It took some time for Rivers to get it in his head that this guy isn’t VJAX, he’s not going to out jump many corners for a jump ball like VJAX could, but he’s faster.  So that timing, took some time to get down.  Hopefully the scores from last week are a sign that the issue has been resolved.  The one downer is that even with the two scores, Meachem doesn’t get targeted enough to really depend on, so he’s still a risky play, even if you do think that the timing has been fixed.  I don’t even really want to touch on Gates and his struggles, from what I saw watching the game, he still looks like Gates from years before, but he’s not getting himself open like he used to, and he’s not catching the ball as well either.  I’ve written this guy off too early before, and I won’t’ do it now, but if you’ve got other options at TE, I would be using them until Gates shows a few more sings of life.

A’s-Peyton Manning, D. Thomas.   Mathews.

B’s-Eric Decker, W. McGahee.  Rivers, Malcom Floyd,

Sits-Hillman, Broncos D.  Chargers D, Battle, Meachem, Gates

My pick-Broncos 35, Chargers 21

 

 

Category: Fantasy Football
Posted on: October 11, 2012 1:16 am
 

Treff's week 6 predictions

Almost to the halfway point, playoffs start in just eight weeks!!!  0-3 was not time to panic, 0-5 is most definitely time to panic.

First off let me address my sit of the week last week.  I chose RGIII as my sit of the week based on nothign more than a hunch.  I will never lcaim to give myself credit for predicting an injury, however..in more than one half of the game, RGIII still only had 3 pts and was not going to end up with starter worthy points unless there was some sort of miracle.  I won't shout it out how great that pick was becuase fo the injury, but I will count it in the win column.

Sadly, I can't say anything nearly the same for my start of the week in Heath Miller.  4 for 41 is hardly worthy of an emergency start, let alone start of the week.

 Couple of other highlights/lowlights from my post last week.

 I am still being proven correct on Tannehill, the guy has talent, and may someday be a good NFL QB, but he has niether the weapons nor the knowledge of how to properly utilize them to be considered yet.

The Arrowhead stadium facotr played an even bigger role than i had anticipated.  I did beg you to get your kickers ready, I just didn't imagine there wouldn't be a single TD scored at all.  Something to file away for future reference when your borderline players head to K.C.

Eagles didn't stick to the running game, Eagles lost..would someone please lock Andy Reid up in a closet for week 6?  

Chris Johnson regressed, in a major way, as predicted.

YOu have to think that at some point Peterson will return to the endzone, but I'm sure Harvin owners aren't ocmplaining at all.  Too bad about Simpson's back..they say he might play this week, but back issues never go away wihtout a lot of pure and simple rest.  Especially those that get doctors saying "back surgery".  As tempting as it is to have the deep threat on a team with peterson at RB, you really have to avoid Simpson, he will be out at some point.

The Saint's re-awakening has been a pleasant surprise to me.  Even if they did shoot my game prediction all to hell, it was nice to see all those fantasy points.

Finally, to hell with Matt Schuab..there I said it.  Not really sure what kind of gameplan Houston came into Monday night with, but it wasn't what best suited the team as a whole.  YOur a running team, playing a crappy run defense..run the ball form start to finish.  Don't come out with six pass plays to start the game, don't let Shuab throw the ball to Cromartie and ruin your defensive fantasy points!!  Sure they eventually got back to what wins them games, but not before they had taken what should've been a very easy win and turned it into an actual game.  Just ridiculous.

Record thus far:
Start of the week:  2-3
Sits of the week: 2-4 
Pick 'em:  45-31 (10-4 last week)  (%59,  getting better after back to back double digit wins, but work to be done!)

Only have time for the THursday night game tongiht.  Will hit the rest Friday evening.

Thursday Night
Steelers @ Titans-
So I was wrong on mendenhall, didn't think he'd be a full go the first week back and he ended up scoring the only Steelers TD on the day.  But let's not get too carried away, they're obviously easing him back into the game, Redman had just as many carries.  So he's not a sure fire starter every week just yet.  But, the Titans are a definite start for Mendy owners.  Maybe that's part of why Chris Johnson is jsut so terrible lately.  All of his practice reps come against a truly pathetic rush defense, so he still thinks this game is easy.  Yes? No?  ehh, probably not, but there has to be some reason, and that's as good as any other I've heard.  And if that wasn't bad enough, the Titans pass defense is pretty shoddy as well.  There really should be no reason the Steelers don't win this game handily, regardless oh how they choose to attack it, by air or ground.

Titans just stink, I'm sorry if there are any Titans fans reading, but let's be honest, your best player has regressed so far that he honestly shouldn't even be on the field.  yes your o-line is awful and that has to be a huge factor in Johnson's dismall performance, but at soem point great RB's like Johnson claims he is, find a way.  Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, Marshall Fualk, and on and on, didn't always have the best line, but they always got the job done.  Johnson thinks he's in that class, but has done nohting to prove it since 2010.  And the rest of the team, outside of Kendall Wright has no business even being discussed as it applies to Fantasy football.

A's-Big Ben, Antonio Frown, Mendenhall, PITT D
B's-Wallace, Miller, maybe even Redman.  Kendall Wright
Sitss- Chris Johnson, Hasselblah, any other Titan that you may be unfortunate enough to own.
My pick-  Steelers 31, Titans 10

 
Category: Fantasy Football
 
 
 
 
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