Blog Entry

With great run, Twins have a (7.7 percent) chance

Posted on: June 22, 2011 1:17 pm
Edited on: June 22, 2011 2:08 pm
 
The Twins have been the hottest team in baseball for three weeks. They've won 15 of 17, tying the Diamondbacks (the Diamondbacks!) for the best 17-game stretch by any team this season.

And they're still seven games under .500.

They've made a great run. They no longer look done.

But the computers at Baseball Prospectus might have it right when they still say that the Twins have just a 7.7 percent chance of making the playoffs (the computers at Cool Standings are even less charitable, putting the Twins' chances at 3.4 percent).

Here's why:

As hot as the Twins have been, they'd still need to play at basically a 100-win pace the rest of the way to have any shot at winning the American League Central. To win even 87 games, which is the fewest wins any AL Central winner has had in the last decade, the Twins would need to go 55-36 from here on in.

You know how many Twins teams have gone 55-36 or better in the last 91 games? Three -- the 2006 team that ran down the Tigers, the 1969 team that lost to the Orioles in the playoffs, and the 1965 team that went to the World Series.

You know how many teams went 55-36 or better in the last 91 games last year? One -- the 97-win Phillies.

It's not at all unheard of for a team to play that well. But only the best teams do it.

And remember, that only gets the Twins to 87 wins.

It's easy to get excited about a team playing as well as the Twins are now. The Twins' history tells you that they're a team that can't be discounted, once they give themselves a chance -- as they now have done.

But teams win 15 of 17 -- and many of them then fade.

In fact, of the 18 teams that had a 15-2 stretch at some point from 2005-2010, 11 went on to make the playoffs and seven didn't. Not one of the 18 went on to win the World Series.

The Twins have plenty going for them. Joe Mauer just came back, and they have other key players who could get healthy soon.

They've given themselves a chance -- maybe a 7.7 percent chance, maybe a little better than that.

But even now, this isn't going to be easy.



Category: MLB
Tags: Twins
 
Comments

Since: Dec 2, 2011
Posted on: January 14, 2012 7:06 am
 

With great run, Twins have a (7.7 percent) chance

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Since: Dec 2, 2011
Posted on: December 30, 2011 12:24 pm
 

With great run, Twins have a (7.7 percent) chance

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Since: Nov 19, 2011
Posted on: December 23, 2011 9:18 am
 

With great run, Twins have a (7.7 percent) chance

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Since: Nov 19, 2011
Posted on: December 3, 2011 8:30 am
 

With great run, Twins have a (7.7 percent) chance




Since: Dec 2, 2011
Posted on: December 3, 2011 4:22 am
 

With great run, Twins have a (7.7 percent) chance

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Tomly
Since: Oct 21, 2011
Posted on: October 21, 2011 9:42 pm
This comment has been removed.

Post Deleted by Administrator




Since: Oct 7, 2011
Posted on: October 12, 2011 8:57 am
 

With great run, Twins have a (7.7 percent) chance

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Since: Nov 16, 2009
Posted on: June 24, 2011 2:57 pm
 

With great run, Twins have a (7.7 percent) chance

Going 55-36 from here on out playing in that division isn't a long shot by any means.  I honestly think they'll win the division this year. 



Since: May 9, 2009
Posted on: June 22, 2011 2:45 pm
 

With great run, Twins have a (7.7 percent) chance

Good thing baseball is played on diamonds in the real world and not virtual worlds in computers.



Since: Nov 23, 2007
Posted on: June 22, 2011 1:30 pm
 

With great run, Twins have a (7.7 percent) chance

You dont know the Twins I guess.....Its not like they havent come back before....they know what it takes.....One game at a time...and they are doing it with the B-Squad right now.....Once Thome...Kubel...Morneau...Nathan...

.and Span are all back soon....They should be even better...


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