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Blog Entry

NBA Prospect Ratings

Posted on: March 23, 2009 5:44 am
Edited on: March 23, 2009 2:57 pm
 

These are long-term ratings of NBA prospects currently eligible to enter the 2009 NBA draft. Keep in mind it's not strictly an assessment of how good a player is now but rather a mix of current performance, potential and positional value.

Point Guard

  1. Jrue Holiday
  2. Ricky Rubio
  3. Brandon Jennings
  4. Jeff Teague
  5. Ty Lawson
  6. Stephen Curry
  7. Malcolm Lee
  8. Patrick Mills
  9. AJ Price
  10. Nick Calathes
  11. Kemba Walker
  12. Elliot Williams
  13. Darren Collison
  14. Eric Maynor
  15. Daniel Hackett
  16. Jonny Flynn
  17. Jeremy Pargo
  18. Sherron Collins
  19. Nolan Smith
  20. Scottie Reynolds

Shooting Guard

  1. Demar DeRozan
  2. James Harden
  3. Willie Warren
  4. Tyreke Evans
  5. Chase Budinger
  6. Evan Turner
  7. Gerald Henderson
  8. Klay Thompson
  9. Scotty Hopson
  10. Terrence Williams
  11. Dwight Lewis
  12. James Anderson
  13. Jerel McNeal
  14. William Buford
  15. Jodie Meeks
  16. Iman Shumpert
  17. Wayne Ellington
  18. Robert Vaden
  19. Matt Thornton
  20. Manny Harris

Small Forward

  1. Al-Farouq Aminu
  2. Earl Clark
  3. James Johnson
  4. Devin Ebanks
  5. Kyle Singler
  6. Austin Daye
  7. DaJuan Summers
  8. Sam Young
  9. William Witherspoon
  10. Anthony Jones
  11. Damion James
  12. Chris Singleton
  13. Tyler Smith
  14. Derrick Brown
  15. Delvon Roe
  16. Luke Babbit
  17. Stanley Robinson
  18. Paul George
  19. Chris Wright
  20. Marcus Morris

Power Forward

  1. Blake Griffin
  2. Greg Monroe
  3. Jordan Hill
  4. Patrick Patterson
  5. Craig Brackins
  6. Gani Lawal
  7. Michael Dunigan
  8. Josh Heytvelt
  9. Samardo Samuels
  10. Dejuan Blair
  11. Ed Davis
  12. Drew Gordon
  13. Jarvis Varnado
  14. Chris Johnson
  15. Terrence Jennings
  16. Taj Gibson
  17. Jeff Pendergraph
  18. Tyler Hansbrough
  19. JaJuan Johnson
  20. Kenny Kadji

Center

  1. Hasheem Thabeet
  2. Cole Aldrich
  3. BJ Mullens
  4. Tony Woods
  5. Jerome Jordan
  6. Donatas Motiejunas
  7. Dexter Pittman
  8. Ty Walker
  9. Andrew Ogilvy
  10. Ty Zeller
  11. Ralph Sampson III
  12. J'Mison Morgan
  13. Solomon Alabi
  14. Henry Sims
  15. Luke Nevil

Overall

  1. Blake Griffin
  2. Demar DeRozan
  3. Greg Monroe
  4. James Harden
  5. Jrue Holiday
  6. Ricky Rubio
  7. Jordan Hill
  8. Hasheem Thabeet
  9. Brandon Jennings
  10. Al-Farouq Aminu
  11. Earl Clark
  12. Willie Warren
  13. Jeff Teague
  14. James Johnson
  15. Tyreke Evans
  16. Devin Ebanks
  17. Cole Aldrich
  18. Patrick Patterson
  19. Ty Lawson
  20. Chase Budinger
  21. Stephen Curry
  22. Kyle Singler
  23. BJ Mullens
  24. Austin Daye
  25. DaJuan Summers
  26. Gani Lawal
  27. Michael Dunigan
  28. Tony Woods
  29. Evan Turner
  30. Gerald Henderson
  31. Malcolm Lee
  32. Patrick Mills
  33. Jerome Jordan
  34. Josh Heytvelt
  35. Samardo Samuels
  36. Dejuan Blair
  37. Donatas Motiejunas
  38. Sam Young
  39. Klay Thompson
  40. AJ Price
  41. William Witherspoon
  42. Anthony Jones
  43. Dexter Pittman
  44. Scotty Hopson
  45. Ty Walker
  46. Terrence Williams
  47. Nick Calathes
  48. Dwight Lewis
  49. Ed Davis
  50. Kemba Walker
  51. Elliot Williams
  52. Drew Gordon
  53. Jarvis Varnado
  54. Chris Johnson
  55. Darren Collison
  56. James Anderson
  57. Eric Maynor
  58. Daniel Hackett
  59. Andrew Ogilvy
  60. Damion James
  61. Jonny Flynn
Category: NCAAB
Tags: NBA, NBA Draft, NCAAB
 
Comments
BucFan40
Since: May 31, 2007
Posted on: March 25, 2009 9:51 pm
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Since: Jun 11, 2008
Posted on: March 25, 2009 9:43 pm
 

NBA Prospect Ratings

Cats I know last year you put out a list of player that you wanted the Suns to draft when we were debating the Lopez pick.  What players are you hoping they target in this years draft, and could that change depending on trades in the offseason?




Since: Aug 16, 2006
Posted on: March 25, 2009 4:08 pm
 

NBA Prospect Ratings

BucsFan,

Measurements have been a topic I've complained about for a couple seasons now. The current height measurements, at least until the combine, are out-dated and relatively useless. The size measurements that matter are from the ground to the armpit, the armpit to the fingers and the wingspan. Weight and body fat are important, too. However, someone made a good point last year that if schools listed those measurements it might be too much information for the casual fan. While I think fans would adapt, the poster has a good point. But that doesn't cover the issue you brought up right now, which is an obvious manipulation of a player's listed height potentially being negative for them in the long run. While I think it can potentially create a problem in terms of meeting or failing fans' expectations I believe NBA teams develop a true perpsective of a player's physical abilities before the draft takes place. Talent and intangibles are the hard ones to figure out.

As for Kadji, consider that this list is a projection of each eligible prospect's long-term value. In other words, after their NBA careers are finished, who will have been the most valuable. The lists effectiveness can't realistically be measured for another 15-20 years, which takes away from the appeal of it, but I think that when an NBA team looks at a player that perspective is a big part in determining which prospect is better than the other. Obviously team need, roster or financially-related, will sometimes dictate the draft process, but each of these teams likely develop a list similar to the one I try to put together. So while it may seem unrealistic to rate Kadji at the spot he's at now based on current performance, his physical attributes combined with the potential I see is enough to keep him on my radar, so to speak. Like you say, he may be a four-year player. At the same time, it takes big men longer to develop. There aren't many, if any at all, complete big men prospects in this year's pool of eligible prospects. All of them are gambles to some extent. But give Kadji another 5-8 years of development and he has the potential to be a contributing NBA player. This reasoning is also why guys like Wesley Witherspoon and Anthony Jones are listed high among the small forwards. It's also why a guy like DeJuan Blair is much lower than he would be if I rated the best players right now. I see him being limited at the next level in terms of physical effectiveness and ceiling. I'm surprised nobody's argued against that yet.

Like I said, a lot of people are high on Maynor. And I realize that I have him rated a lot lower than most. Some are saying he could be a lottery pick. I don't know. I know how effective he's been for Anthony Grant. But the NBA is a different game. Will he be that effective against really good point guards (there's a lot of them in the league right now)? People say his defense on Collison proved he can defend at the next level, but I'm not so sure I agree with that. Collison is a very good college point guard, but I think he's a better defender than he is on offense. I defintitely think Maynor will have tougher defensive assignments on a nightly basis in the NBA. Who knows... He's just one of those guys I'm not high on, kind of like CDR last year.




Since: Jun 11, 2008
Posted on: March 24, 2009 8:14 pm
 

NBA Prospect Ratings

I love Patty Mills.  When I saw him play the first thing that came to mind was "oh my god he's Allen Iverson."

When it comes to the James Harden topic, I would take him over Griffin every day of the week, twice on Sundays.



BucFan40
Since: May 31, 2007
Posted on: March 24, 2009 4:42 pm
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Since: Nov 23, 2008
Posted on: March 24, 2009 4:41 pm
 

NBA Prospect Ratings

Flynn will is not the 17th best PG he is one of the top 10. Where is Chase Budinger in the SF list?

 




Since: Aug 16, 2006
Posted on: March 24, 2009 2:40 am
 

NBA Prospect Ratings

BMU,

That's a good call on Rose. I had him and Beasley flip-flopping throughout the year but put Beasley on top eventually. I still think Beasley will be a solid player, maybe even an all-star down the line, but Rose is the better player and prospect.

I think the top player in this year's draft could be one of a few players. It won't be as good as last year, but team's low in the lottery could be getting great value.

I underrated Collins coming out of high school, so I may be doing it now, too. But I have a thing against smaller point guards. He's strong and very quick but is he going to be able to defend at the next level? Is his playmaking good enough to negate that? I don't know.

Douglas was a guy I considered but didn't find room for. It's a testament to how deep the guard position is.

BucFan,

I don't think Harden is fast but he's deceptively athletic and has a good first-step. He's a very smooth player with a great feel for the game and knows how to get to the basket. His defense is pretty solid, too. Not outstanding but good enough.

A lot of people are high on Maynor. I just don't see the same elite talent that people are talking about. He's a better player right now than some of the guys ahead of him on the list, but I guess I just don't see that great ceiling. I also don't think he'll measure out at that height, although he does appear to have a decent wingspan. Maybe I'm underselling him. What will he do defensively in the league?

I agree with you about Griffin's size. I'm not sure he's a legit 6'10" either. In fact, I'm sure he's not. But he has more of a power inside game than Beasley. He's not so perimeter and face-up oriented. I was this close to putting DeRozan ahead of him, but I guess I just haven't seen quite enough to do so yet. Either way, I think you're on to something there.

Bryant is a big man and he actually did pretty well against Hill earlier in the year. You're right, he was a snub. Thanks for the heads up.

I like Kadji's frame and potential. You've obviously watched more of him than I have but give him a couple years to develop and I think he'll be a decent prospect. I hadn't gotten the impression he was that soft. Maybe it's his youth. Sometimes it takes time for these guys. Either way,



BucFan40
Since: May 31, 2007
Posted on: March 23, 2009 10:23 pm
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BucFan40
Since: May 31, 2007
Posted on: March 23, 2009 10:20 pm
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Since: Jan 25, 2008
Posted on: March 23, 2009 10:14 pm
 

NBA Prospect Ratings

 

Here are my problems with Harden

First off, the dude DISSAPEARS in big games. He was a joke in the tournament. Stars as good as hes supposed to be shouldnt be doing that.

 

 

 

Your referring to the NCAA Tournament Games, and the one against USC. You seem to forget the earlier games he had in the Pac 10 season against good teams on the road and at home.

Now defensivly, its hard to judge players at the college level because of zone and such, but I've seen him once in man to man. Although it was last year, he didnt look too impressive

 

 

He leads the Pac 10 in steals, I've seen him play a few times, he looks pretty good to me.

Personally, I think the most NBA ready player in the draft is Eric Maynor out of VCU. Watch him play and he has all the characteristics of a bigger Jameer Nelson. He can penetrate at will and if he is actually 6'3 at the measuring day for the draft, he'll be a top 10 pick. He can shoot lights out, and that little runner he has puts Nash's to shame. Also, watching him against Collison, he created so many open looks for his teammates. Put him with some better shooters and he could be leading the league in assists at some point in his career. He was a clutch player that played all 4 years. That gives him an edge in my book

 

Jordan Hill, Blake Griffin, and James Harden are all more NBA ready, why do you think that there top 5 picks, and Maynor isn't?

Also, I have one problem with Blake Griffen and thats height. We all remember saying that Beasley would be up there with Dwight Howard as the next great young post player. We all thought he was 6'10. He went to the "combine" and measured at 6'7. He's now a backup wingman on Miami

 

 

He'll be better then Beasley in the NBA,

Patrick Patterson is an interesting prospect. He plays like a center. The athletic ability of a small forward and the body of a power forward. I'd like to see him get a bit thicker, and he could be a star. A smaller Amar'e stoudemire

I think that John Bryant of Santa Clara should be on your list. He's got great touch and is a huge body with a super work ethic. Went from a 350 pound lard as a freshman to 270 as a senior and the nations top rebounder

 

 

John Bryant isn't that good, unathletic, out of shape if your complaining about Harden not being a good NBA Prospect, then this guy isn't. I agree Patterson needs to get stronger, I don't know if he's the next Amare though.

Finally, Chavis Holmes is a guy who could really excel in a system like D'Antoni's. He shoots 48% from 3 and leads the nations in steals in VMI's run n gun oriented system

 

 

He shoots it pretty good, but his steals number is really inflated by how his team plays.



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